April 23, 2025 Istanbul, Turkey
Istanbul, Turkeys largest city and economic powerhouse, is grappling with mounting concerns about its vulnerability to major earthquakes. Despite recent recovery efforts and government initiatives, experts are warning that the city remains woefully unprepared for a potential earthquake of catastrophic proportions. With seismic activity intensifying in the region, authorities and residents alike are now facing an urgent reality: the time to act is running out.
A Growing Threat
Istanbul sits on the North Anatolian Fault NAF, one of the most active seismic zones in the world. This fault has historically been the site of devastating earthquakes, and experts have long warned of the looming threat of a major tremor in the city. Recent tremors, including several smaller earthquakes within a 72hour span, have only heightened these concerns.
In the past few days, Istanbul experienced multiple aftershocks, including a magnitude 6.2 earthquake that struck the Silivri district, located to the west of the city. This strong tremor, while not causing significant damage, has once again underscored Istanbuls seismic risks. The impact was felt throughout the city, shaking buildings, causing panic, and prompting local authorities to issue public warnings.
Vulnerable Infrastructure
Experts are particularly concerned about the state of Istanbuls aging infrastructure. A staggering 600,000 buildings in the city are considered at risk of collapse during a strong earthquake. Seismologists warn that, in the worstcase scenario, the citys crumbling infrastructure could lead to widespread devastation, with thousands of lives potentially at stake.
In 1999, Istanbul was struck by a devastating earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6. The 1999 disaster killed more than 17,000 people and left hundreds of thousands homeless. Since then, the city has grown rapidly, with new highrise buildings springing up alongside older, poorly constructed ones that remain highly vulnerable to seismic activity. These older buildings, many of which lack modern earthquakeresistant features, pose a significant risk in the event of another major tremor.
Naci Görür, a prominent seismologist, has been vocal in his warnings, stating that the citys infrastructure is illequipped to handle another major earthquake. The potential death toll could reach hundreds of thousands if proper precautions are not taken, Görür cautioned in a recent interview.
Governments Efforts and Challenges
In response to these warnings, the Turkish government has been investing heavily in earthquake preparedness. The government has allocated billions of dollars for infrastructure improvements, and efforts are underway to retrofit vulnerable buildings. Additionally, a major urban transformation project aimed at replacing outdated structures with more resilient ones is being pursued.
Despite these efforts, the pace of change has been slow. Murat Kurum, Turkeys Minister of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change, recently expressed concern that Istanbuls current infrastructure is not strong enough to withstand a major earthquake. He revealed that about 1.5 million buildings in the city remain at high risk, with the most vulnerable structures scattered throughout highdensity neighborhoods.
The time to act is now, Kurum stressed in a speech last week. We must accelerate our urban transformation initiatives to avoid a future disaster. He emphasized the need for urgent action to strengthen buildings, particularly in areas that have not yet undergone seismic retrofitting.
In addition to structural improvements, authorities are focusing on improving emergency response systems and disaster preparedness. However, experts argue that these efforts are insufficient given the scale of the threat. Istanbuls rapid population growth and the complexity of its urban environment make it especially challenging to implement widespread changes in a timely manner.
Public Awareness and Community Preparedness
Beyond infrastructure upgrades, public awareness and community preparedness are crucial in mitigating the impact of an earthquake. Following the recent tremors, Turkish authorities have been running campaigns to educate residents about safety measures, such as how to react during a quake and what supplies to have on hand in case of an emergency.
Despite these efforts, there remains a significant gap in earthquake readiness among the population. Many residents of Istanbul still live in buildings that have not been retrofitted, and in some cases, people are unaware of the risks or lack the means to prepare adequately. This lack of preparedness is compounded by the growing tension and uncertainty surrounding the regions seismic activity.
The Road Ahead: What Needs to Be Done
Istanbuls earthquake risks are undeniable, and the time for halfmeasures has passed. Experts are calling for a comprehensive and coordinated effort to tackle the citys vulnerability. This includes not only upgrading the citys infrastructure but also reinforcing its emergency response systems and ensuring that citizens are properly prepared for a potential disaster.
As Istanbuls population continues to grow, urban planners and seismologists stress the importance of incorporating earthquake resilience into every aspect of urban development. The citys rapid expansion should not come at the expense of safety.
In the wake of the February 2023 earthquakes that claimed tens of thousands of lives in southeastern Turkey, the governments commitment to earthquake preparedness has never been more critical. If lessons from past disasters are to be learned, Istanbul must take swift and decisive action now, before it is too late.
While there is still hope for mitigating the damage that a future earthquake could cause, the window of opportunity is closing rapidly. For Istanbul, the next big quake could be just around the corner, and only by taking immediate and sustained action can the city hope to survive and rebuild.